Listen now (48 min) | The Focus Group podcast is BACK, with a twist: We're releasing The Bulwark's first-ever poll of Republican primary voters where we're trying to figure out just how big the "Always Trump," "Maybe Trump," and "Never Trump" buckets are among Republican primary voters. For that, we brought in Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who joins Sarah to stack our poll results up against the focus groups we've done since the election.
If these people think independents like I am will vote for DeSantis because he is more palatable than Trump, then they cannot comprehend how many reject not only Trump but those who supported Trump, especially after the insurrection. They don't need to offer Trump-lite to win my vote. They need to repent, disavow the lies, and change course to win my vote. Obviously, the latter won't happen. It's a shame, because I believe Americans are a very forgiving people.
Instead, the U.S. is going to be politically unstable for the foreseeable future. I'm mad as hell about it. I believe these voters need to be held accountable, not just those whom they elect.
Part of me is sorry that you've kept yourself so busy, Sarah. On the other hand, you've taken this podcast and made it the best "what are the people thinking?" show out there. Your curiosity has given us not only information about crucial time periods (midterm, Presidential election year), but has also been able help us figure out how people are internalizing things before they have to make choices.
All in all: a good way to try to figure out how the Republican Party electorate thinks.
Question for Sarah on the DeSantis vs. Trump issue.
What makes you think DeSantis would not also attempt a coup? We know he's willing to remove elected officials who disagree with him, even when it violates the constitution. We know he redrew the Florida electoral map to suit his own personal tastes. We know he is willing to suppress the vote, even going so far as to arrest people who were given voter IDs by the state of Florida.
Given all that and the lack of Republican opposition to what Trump did. I think the null hypothesis should be that any and all Republican candidates would be willing to attempt a coup until proven otherwise. DeSantis's manipulation of election law and his blatant exercise of executive power make him exceptionally likely to try something. Sure, he probably won't summon an angry mob to storm the capitol, but he's more likely to unite the Republican establishment around the effort, and therefore, more likely to be successful.
I really enjoy your focus groups, however they scare the crap out of me. I don’t understand how the always Trumpers can’t see through him. Also he might not be able to run should he get indicted and convicted which would be a solution to the GOP. Ron DeSantis is just like an autocrat in his state which also scares me should he get elected. Keep up the great work
Excellent pod!!! I have so many thoughts and questions that I’ll probably have to listen to it again but I just wanted to thank you personally for sharing this with us! An unexpected Focus Group is like a surprise gift and an unexpected Focus Group pod with exclusive survey results is like if that gift was Broadway tickets to Hamilton.
I sincerely hope your mild Focus Group addiction isn’t interfering too much with your mental health but I hope you know how much we all appreciate your hard work and all the great insights. Thank You!
I have heard Rick Wilson mention that there has been significant changes in the Florida Repub party which has fueled the change from purple state to red in the last 6 - 8 years. Wilson's opinion (he is a Florida resident) is that it is not that DeSantis is a master of the universe super-hero, it is more the changes in the party in his state. I sure which someone at the Bulwark could do a deep dive into this. Because what I have seen of DeSantis is extremely unappealing (plus I disagree with him about everything) and no matter what his political skills might be I do not see him winning on the national level. He reminds me a bit of Steve Forbes who came across as robotic, impersonal and inauthentic.
This poll + the details of the *10* (good work Sarah!) focus groups has mostly confirmed what I said about MAGA inevitably throwing Trump under the bus over his electability issues (Flight 93 mentality Trumps Trump). "The people always worship the rising sun more than they do the setting sun." - Pompei Magmus to Sula
So happy you guys did a poll with Whit Ayres (great political analyst). This poll this week was an awesome surprise. You guys are doing polls now! Congrats Sarah!
This was so excellent. I wish I had influence. Of course, still having a panic attack after listening to those trump-or-die people, some of which are in my family.
YAY!! SO HAPPY FOCUS GROUP IS BACK!!
If these people think independents like I am will vote for DeSantis because he is more palatable than Trump, then they cannot comprehend how many reject not only Trump but those who supported Trump, especially after the insurrection. They don't need to offer Trump-lite to win my vote. They need to repent, disavow the lies, and change course to win my vote. Obviously, the latter won't happen. It's a shame, because I believe Americans are a very forgiving people.
Instead, the U.S. is going to be politically unstable for the foreseeable future. I'm mad as hell about it. I believe these voters need to be held accountable, not just those whom they elect.
Part of me is sorry that you've kept yourself so busy, Sarah. On the other hand, you've taken this podcast and made it the best "what are the people thinking?" show out there. Your curiosity has given us not only information about crucial time periods (midterm, Presidential election year), but has also been able help us figure out how people are internalizing things before they have to make choices.
All in all: a good way to try to figure out how the Republican Party electorate thinks.
Question for Sarah on the DeSantis vs. Trump issue.
What makes you think DeSantis would not also attempt a coup? We know he's willing to remove elected officials who disagree with him, even when it violates the constitution. We know he redrew the Florida electoral map to suit his own personal tastes. We know he is willing to suppress the vote, even going so far as to arrest people who were given voter IDs by the state of Florida.
Given all that and the lack of Republican opposition to what Trump did. I think the null hypothesis should be that any and all Republican candidates would be willing to attempt a coup until proven otherwise. DeSantis's manipulation of election law and his blatant exercise of executive power make him exceptionally likely to try something. Sure, he probably won't summon an angry mob to storm the capitol, but he's more likely to unite the Republican establishment around the effort, and therefore, more likely to be successful.
Otherwise, great (if a bit maddening) podcast.
At 21:52: "Nikki Haley has walked a very fine line." Yes, but she's walked it like a drunk, stumbling back and forth as she goes.
I really enjoy your focus groups, however they scare the crap out of me. I don’t understand how the always Trumpers can’t see through him. Also he might not be able to run should he get indicted and convicted which would be a solution to the GOP. Ron DeSantis is just like an autocrat in his state which also scares me should he get elected. Keep up the great work
Sarah: can we refer to the 28% Always Trump bloc of voters as “Trump 5 Eva” going forward???
Love this show!!! So glad you are back!!!
Great job as always, Sarah. Let me echo Debbie Long's comment a couple hours ago. It's great to see The Focus Group is back!
Excellent pod!!! I have so many thoughts and questions that I’ll probably have to listen to it again but I just wanted to thank you personally for sharing this with us! An unexpected Focus Group is like a surprise gift and an unexpected Focus Group pod with exclusive survey results is like if that gift was Broadway tickets to Hamilton.
I sincerely hope your mild Focus Group addiction isn’t interfering too much with your mental health but I hope you know how much we all appreciate your hard work and all the great insights. Thank You!
Oh, and Sarah, if you're wanting to think about historical analogies, I would echo Whit Ayres' 1912 mention.
Might want to check out this book by Lewis Gould: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0700615644/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1
I have heard Rick Wilson mention that there has been significant changes in the Florida Repub party which has fueled the change from purple state to red in the last 6 - 8 years. Wilson's opinion (he is a Florida resident) is that it is not that DeSantis is a master of the universe super-hero, it is more the changes in the party in his state. I sure which someone at the Bulwark could do a deep dive into this. Because what I have seen of DeSantis is extremely unappealing (plus I disagree with him about everything) and no matter what his political skills might be I do not see him winning on the national level. He reminds me a bit of Steve Forbes who came across as robotic, impersonal and inauthentic.
This poll + the details of the *10* (good work Sarah!) focus groups has mostly confirmed what I said about MAGA inevitably throwing Trump under the bus over his electability issues (Flight 93 mentality Trumps Trump). "The people always worship the rising sun more than they do the setting sun." - Pompei Magmus to Sula
So happy you guys did a poll with Whit Ayres (great political analyst). This poll this week was an awesome surprise. You guys are doing polls now! Congrats Sarah!
This one alone is worth the price of a Bulwark subscription. Thanks Sarah!
This was so excellent. I wish I had influence. Of course, still having a panic attack after listening to those trump-or-die people, some of which are in my family.